a good part of its billion in revenue comes from the only market that still goes to the movies

If we are ever going to have a negative answer to the question of “Can James Cameron stop killing it at the box office?” It certainly won’t be in the short term. ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ has once again swept theaters, and although perhaps a couple of aspects of the triumph must be pointed out, it is indisputable that we are facing a new success: it has already exceeded one billion dollars.

The figures. The third installment of ‘Avatar’ has reached $1,083 million at the global box office after 18 days in theaters. The figure is divided into 306 million dollars in US territory and 777.1 million in international markets, confirming the traditional foreign dominance of the franchise created by James Cameron. The milestone comes slightly later than its predecessors (‘Avatar’ achieved it in 17 days and ‘The Sense of Water’ in just 14), which makes us wonder if ‘Fire and Ash’ will manage to replicate the extraordinary long-term performance of its predecessors, which remained in first place at the box office for seven consecutive weekends.

Gear change. The rhythm of ‘Fuego y ash’, as we have mentioned, contrasts with that of its predecessors. The 2009 film ended its run with a historic gross of $2.9 billion, while ‘The Sense of Water’ ended with $2.32 billion. Both films demonstrated exceptional resilience, remaining at number one in the ranking for seven uninterrupted weeks, an increasingly unusual phenomenon in the streaming era.

The big question now is whether ‘Fire and Ash’ will manage to join the exclusive club of 2 billion movies. The first indicators suggest a decrease compared to the second installment, which in turn had already experienced a drop of 580 million compared to the original. If this trend is confirmed, ‘Fire and Ash’ would be the first ‘Avatar’ installment to stay below the two billion threshold, which could redefine the commercial expectations of the franchise, which as we have already seen is not enough to be one of the hits of the year to be profitable.

The importance of China. As has been usual in the franchise, the success of ‘Fire and Ash’ depends largely on the foreign market: for example, in this installment 71.7% of the income comes from outside the US: China leads the list with 138 million dollars, followed by France with 81 million, Germany with 64 and South Korea with 44. Only in China, the third ‘Avatar’ achieved the best premiere of the saga in the country, with 57 million dollars in its first weekend. The IMAX format was crucial: it generated $23.5 million, 23% of the total Chinese collection. A success that is more significant considering that the Chinese market has remained practically closed to foreign productions in recent years. By the way, she has already been dethroned.

Disney sweeps away. One more year, this is not news, but let’s confirm Disney’s absolute dominance at the box office. This third ‘Avatar’ is also the studio’s third film to exceed one billion dollars this year, after the live-action remake of ‘Lilo & Stitch’ (1,030 million) and ‘Zootopia 2’ (1,420 million, so far). That is, more than $6.58 billion at the global box office, a figure that has not been reached since before the pandemic. And without the need for Marvel (with three releases that did not reach the expected figures or the collections of other times) or ‘Star Wars’.

No other studio has managed to produce a single billion-dollar movie since 2023 but it is worth remembering, of course, that Disney has not been short of failures at the box office: ‘Snow White’, ‘Tron: Ares’ and ‘Elio’ were well below expectations, which poses a paradox. Disney scores the biggest hits and the main failures of the year, making it clear that Disney has the blockbuster formula, but its brand is no longer infallible.

Prudent Cameron. Despite the success, James Cameron maintains a cautious stance on the continuity of the saga. Before the premiere, he was already saying that “first, we have to make money from this. We each have to prove this absurd business case again.” Cameron recognizes that the industry has changed and that the theater market is going through a moment that makes any forecast possible. As he revealed, he would call a press conference to reveal the complete plots of ‘Avatar 4’ and ‘5’ if they were not finally made. Another option would be to novelize the scripts, a project for which he maintains a certain enthusiasm.

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